Another active hurricane season has gone by in 2010. When we look at tics for last year’s hurricane season – 21 named storms of which five were major hurricanes – the Cayman Islands were quite blessed in 2010.

Seasonal predictions from the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University point to another active season with an above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean (61 per cent).

The April forecast for 2011 calls for 16 named storms of which nine are expected to become hurricanes, five of which may be intense hurricanes, i.e. with winds 111 mph or higher. An update to this forecast is due in May just before the start of the hurricane season.

Memories of hurricane Ivan and Paloma remain fresh in our minds, and the entire Cayman Islands population can now attest to the fury of a land-falling major hurricane. Residents are therefore urged to prepare themselves for the season and to pay particular attention to the many public statements on preparedness and mitigation issued regularly on our local radio and television. If you do not yet have a personal hurricane plan, please get one in place. Be certain that you have your hurricane supplies and if you live in a high risk or vulnerable area, plan your escape route to the nearest hurricane shelter.

With the 2011 hurricane season forecast to be busy, residents and visitors alike should make hurricane awareness and preparedness a priority. Let us also be aware that no prediction or outlook can tell whether a particular country, or any part of it, will be certainly hit or spared. Annual hurricane predictions are merely a best estimate of expected hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

Extensive damage caused by hurricanes such as Ivan (2004) and Paloma (2008) on Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac respectively, and in more recent times devastation with loss of life in the Eastern Caribbean from Tomas (2010) serve to further reinforce the need to take preparedness very seriously, if we are to avoid loss of life and damage of astronomical proportions. Yes, improvements in technology will continue to enhance our capabilities in the tracking of tropical storms. Many graphical products continue to be developed by the National Hurricane Center in Miami to further enable easier interpretations of warnings by decision makers and the public as we seek to continue minimizing destruction of property and loss of life.

However, the general public must be warned that these products are for guidance purposes with errors that could be large at four to five days out, and this information should be used under the guidance, direction and recommendation, on course of action, by professionals from the Weather Service and Emergency Management.

Looking at all the above advances and improvements made in hurricane tracking, we realise that there is no shortage of information available to the public. However, all this is of no use if it cannot be effectively and efficiently delivered to the public who need it for planning in the areas of protection of life and property. The best forecast is useless if no one sees or hears it. Over the years, the national weather service, emergency managers from Hazard Management Cayman Island and the local media have worked together to get this information out to the public in a regular, timely manner and this undertaking is being continuously refined.

All residents, therefore, must remain alert and ready during the 2011 hurricane season. Hurricanes Ivan and Paloma demonstrated that to be informed can lead to better personal as well as community decisions and this can be the difference between life and death during a hurricane. I urge the Cayman public to take hurricane season seriously, and pay close attention to local radio and television stations for the latest bulletins from the National Weather Service and Hazard Management Cayman Islands. 

2011 names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney