Population size is a key factor for any society. Why, then, is there so little analysis, discussion or debate devoted to the Cayman Islands population? Oh, there is always talk about people and numbers, of course, but virtually all of it centres on the ratio of foreigners and status holders to “born Caymanians”. There is tremendous interest in the ingredients, but not so much in the volume. Little is ever said publicly about what Cayman’s ideal population number might be. A desirable goal might be impossible to get precisely right, but shouldn’t we try? First, however, we have to do some thinking and determine what kind of a society we want and how many people are necessary to achieve it. Would we be better off with a larger or smaller population? These are simple questions but the answers are complex. The sooner we start addressing them in a meaningful manner, the better.

Even if a country decides that it would be best to grow or shrink its population toward a rational goal, there remains the huge challenge of how to do it. Any society that values personal freedoms can’t just impose a limit on how many children every adult is allowed to produce. It would have to be done by some combination of education, cooperation, and perhaps creative economic incentives. But that’s step 2. Step 1 is figuring out how many people we need and want in order to create and maintain something close to our ideal society.

Cayman is not unique for a lack of focus on population size and charting a course into the future. For most nations, “whatever it is, that’s what it is”, seems to be the official strategy. Growth, held out to be almost always a good thing by most economists, is not as simple as many would have us believe. Sure, adding people year after year can help in many ways, but it always comes with a price. And if a society can’t pay that price in the form of things like security, jobs, education, infrastructure, etc., then the quality of life plummets as the quantity of life rises. Growth is not purely good or always safe, and Caymanians should not be seduced into believing so. If Cayman will be better for all with 150,000 people than it is with 50,000, then the politician or business leader making that claim needs to explain how and why. It might be better, but it just as easily might be worse. Even worse are those who would have us simply hitch our wagon to blind growth with little or no thought to how big we are to become. The public should be engaged and thinking about this issue because it won’t go away.

There is good news and bad news for the Cayman Islands when it comes to the population issue. The bad news is that Cayman’s traditional lack of rational foresight and planning regarding population size sets us up for countless problems down the road. When populations are left to grow or shrink by the thoughtless whims of cultural and reproductive forces, societies are placed at risk of great economic stress and diminished quality of life for all. Blind growth might work out—but it might not. The good news is that Cayman is a very small society. A population of less than 100,000 that also has a very high ratio of visiting workers is a population that can be engineered and tinkered with for good much easier than a country with millions of citizens can. We can also learn from others. World history is filled with examples of countries that grew unchecked without forethought. It went well for some, not so well for others. We should attempt to learn the lessons these examples offer us in order to avoid repeating the mistakes others have made.

This much is certain, if we simply trust in growth for growth’s sake or passively let the population follow its own mindless course, then it is likely that we will squander a precious opportunity to shape our society for the good of future generations.