Sunday, 10 October, is Census Day, the start of a six-week enumeration period to update a portrait of the three Cayman Islands through statistics.

At its most basic, a census is a population count; official population figures determined from the census should be released in April 2011.

But a census can tell so much more. In fact, the exercise is more properly named the 2010 Population and Housing Census. Local organisers hope to persuade all residents to take part in the exercise by providing the information requested. In return, they will make results available to the public by way of printed material and postings on the website of the Economics and Statistics Office. That is the entity legally responsible for carrying out the census, as directed in The Statistics Law.

The Census 2010 Plan, published in February 2009, predicted that the three stages -- preparation, information gathering, and processing -- would in total cost the country $2,150,791.

Details of how that money is spent and what it will procure were explored in a recent interview with Census Manager Elizabeth Talbert. She was recruited specifically for Census 2010 after her extensive experience in Belize and Guyana.

Is a census necessary?

The first topic raised was whether it is necessary to have a census to find out the Islands’ population. Could an accurate total not be derived from the Register of Births and Deaths and the Immigration Department? Definitely not, Talbert said, because there would inevitably be gaps and overlaps. “Putting it together would be the most tedious task you could think of -- and it would be prone to error.” Even more important, there is some vital information for which there is no single source. One example concerns the number of Caymanians leaving the Islands and not returning. The census can pick up on that data, she pointed out.

For the record, the 1999 Census reported a population total of 39,410. The government website currently cites the 2006 figure of 51,992. During a speech in the Legislative Assembly in June, Premier McKeeva Bush told members that the population had dropped from 57,009 in 2008 to 52,830 in 2009. No less a source than the US Central Intelligence Agency reports an estimated Cayman population of 50,209 as of July 2010. The official number coming out of the census is no doubt eagerly awaited by all.

More than a head count

In any event, the census is more than a head count, Talbert noted. It allows the Economics and Statistics Office to get a baseline for social indicators and demographics (overall characteristics of population groups). This information is useful in comparing Cayman with its own past and in comparing Cayman with other countries.

Some of the 68 questions contained in the 2010 questionnaire are standard “core” questions that international organisations such as CARICOM or the United Nations request to have included, Talbert explained. The information obtained allows for regional and international comparisons. One example is asking each resident’s country of birth.

Another example is “connectivity” -- how many households have access to the Internet. In the 1999 census, 14,907 households were counted. Of that number, 5,695 (38 per cent) had a computer in the home. Of these, 4,259 (75 per cent) were hooked up to the Internet. Such percentages can easily be compared with those in other countries.

Other questions are specific to Cayman. A Census Advisory Committee was convened in June 2008 to discuss topics to be included in the 2010 Census. Ronnie Andersson, chief statistician with the Economic and Statistics Office, was designated chairman. Committee members and their positions at the time are director, Department of Employment Relations, Lonny Tibbetts; district commissioner, Sister Islands, Ernie Scott, JP; deputy permanent secretary, Ministry of District Administration, Planning, Agriculture and Housing, Jennifer Ahearn; director, Women’s Resource Centre, Tammy Ebanks-Bishop; chief executive officer, Chamber of Commerce, Wil Pineau; director, Economics and Statistics Office, Maria Zingapan; director, Children and Family Services, Deanna Lookloy; Chief Education Officer Shirley Wahler, and Health Insurance Inspector Sonia Campbell.

Suggestions also came from consultations outside the committee, from the Department of Human Resources, the Planning Department and from Cabinet. The wording of the questionnaire was left to a Document Subcommittee. Talbert said Cabinet received a copy of the draft questionnaire and vetted it but made no changes. “The census is not political,” she emphasised. The questions were subsequently tweaked to make them read more easily.

Numerous categories

The topics of the questions will be listed in a Census Order, which has already been prepared but not yet gazetted. As soon as it is published with the Cayman Islands Gazette it will be reported in detail.

In general, questions will be asked in the categories of Demographics (age, sex, district of residence); Disability and illness;  School attendance; Educational attainment (highest grade completed); Union status; Births (to be answered by females between 15 and 49); Employment (to be answered by individuals 15 and over); Housing (type of construction); Mortality; Emigration and Immigration.

Talbert appealed to all residents for cooperation when enumerators come to their homes.

“Open your doors and be counted,” she urged. “And if you are not counted and we’re in the second or third week, give us a call and let us know. I want people to want to be counted.” A resident is anyone living in the Cayman Islands for at least six months, or having intentions to stay for at least six months.

She emphasised the confidentiality of the questionnaires and the fact that no names need be given. For purposes of distinguishing between individuals  within a household, members may refer to themselves as A, B, C or 1, 2 3 if they wish.

“We are not there for legal immigration status or building codes or anything like that. We just want the count,” she said.

The recently amended Statistics Law does provide for a penalty for anyone who refuses to supply the information required. But in all her years of experience, Talbert said, she has never known of anyone being prosecuted for refusal to take part in a census.

“We as census takers try as much as possible to use tact and persuasion. We don’t want to push anybody. To use the law as a force could bring negative effects. If we insist they tell us something, they might tell us anything. It makes more sense to use tact rather than get information that might not be reliable.”

The census workers will be trained in September on how to administer the questionnaire and develop tactful skills. In addition, they will have a field supervisor to fall back on. Each will earn $3,000 on successful completion of their work 

All information confidential

Their training will include their own responsibility to keep all census matters confidential. The same law that prescribes a penalty for people who refuse to answer census questions also provides penalties for breaches by the census workers. A worker who uses any census information for personal gain, or who communicates it without authority is liable on conviction to a fine of $5,000 or to imprisonment for one year or to both.

So the preparation stage of Census 2010 is coming to a close. Census workers have been recruited and those selected should received their invitation to training by this Friday, 20 August. Training manuals have been written; 250 enumeration areas of approximately 100 households each have been defined; the census questionnaires have been printed. Posters, banners and media announcements have been raising public awareness.

After the data-gathering stage, which ends in November, the first results published will be the total population, by district and by gender.

The full census report will take time, Talbert explained, because the data has to be edited, coded, scanned, placed on a data base and put in a statistical programme for generating tables of information. She predicted completion by October 2011.

THE CENSUS IN HISTORY

The New Standard Encyclopaedia states that the first census was taken by the Babylonians around 8,000 years ago. Other sources argue that it was only 4,000 years ago.

It’s not clear what the Babylonians called their exercise, since the word “census” comes from the Latin “censere”, to assess, referring to the registration of citizens and their property in ancient Rome.

One of the most widely-read references to a census is probably the Bible, Chapter Two of the Gospel of St. Luke: “Now it happened that at this time Caesar Augustus issued a decree that a census should be made of the whole inhabited world”, which prompted Joseph and Mary to travel to Bethlehem, where Baby Jesus was born.

The Domesday (or Doomsday) Book was compiled in 1086. The oldest surviving public record in England, it was more of a survey than a census, for as History Magazine (October/November 2001) reports, “women rarely appear.”  Still, from information about land holdings, buildings, tenants, villagers and so on, the population of England was estimated as 1.5 million. The article states that the detail of Domesday was not surpassed until the introduction of censuses in the early 19th century.

The first census in the United States took place in 1790. A major purpose was to determine how many representatives each state would have in the lower house of the national Congress. Article I of the US Constitution mandates a census every 10 years, referring to it as an enumeration.

The first census in Cayman is accepted to be the count made by Edward Corbet in 1802 at the request of General George Nugent, governor of Jamaica. Mr. Corbet reported the number of inhabitants, whether White or Coloured, the number of slaves owned, and the area of residence. Total population of Grand Cayman was 933, of whom 545 were reported to be slaves. Mr. Corbet advised that the Islands of “Little Cayman and Cayman Brack” were altogether uninhabited and almost inaccessible.

Cayman’s most recent census was conducted in October 1999, when the population was determined to be 39,410, with 1,822 of those residents in Cayman Brac and 115 in Little Cayman. The usual 10-year interval between population counts was not followed because of General Elections in May 2009. The Census Plan put forward by the Economics and Statistics Office in 2009 explained that it is “considered best practice not to conduct a statistical survey as large as a census in the same year of a significant socio-political event.”