It’s not a matter of ‘what if’ another storm like Hurricane Ivan hits Cayman, but when.

Situated where it is, the Cayman Islands is in the middle of Hurricane Alley, subject to storms coming from the east and, late in the year, storms coming from the south.

Although prior to Hurricane Ivan, the Island had largely been spared a major hurricane since 1932, there have been plenty of close calls over the past 50 years. Hurricane Paloma wreaked havoc on the Sister Islands in 2008, but if it wasn’t for a last minute wobble to the east, Grand Cayman could have taken the brunt of that storm.

Another hurricane hit will, undoubtedly, happen again. We just don’t know when. The question is, though, if another major hurricane hit now, would the Cayman Islands come out better than it did in Ivan?

The answer is probably yes... and no.

Structurally, the buildings in Cayman are stronger than ever. Since most buildings here are built using reinforced concrete blocks, there were only a few structural failures during Ivan. But there were numerous roof issues, especially with cladding. As a result, many commercial buildings and residences have switched to standing seam metal roofs, which fared very well in Ivan’s 150+ mph winds.

Since Ivan, residential and commercial buildings sites have also been filled to higher levels in an effort to make them more resistant to storm surge flooding.

Residents and businesses are better prepared for a hurricane now, having learned hard lessons from Ivan. Businesses have also put in place detailed recovery plans for post-disaster contingencies.

Although most everyone is better prepared now, Cayman has changed in many ways since Ivan and the social and economic recovery of another Ivan-like event could be more difficult than seven years ago.

There is much more gun crime in Cayman now than in 2004, even so there was still looting and a general sense of lawlessness in the days, weeks and even months after Ivan. Now, with so many more gun crimes occurring, personal safety would be a real issue after another Ivan-like hurricane.

Ivan unified Cayman for a while as Caymanians and expatriates worked together to put the Islands back together. However, no expatriates had been rolled over by the seven-year term limit yet, something which has since caused a major rift in Caymanian-expatriate relations. Some community-minded expatriates have been rolled over, replaced by other ‘short-timer’ expatriates who don’t feel the need to assimilate. Even some of the expatriates who were rolled over and then came back after a year away, returned somewhat bitter and less involved. How this change in attitude would play out after a storm is unknown, but chances are many expatriates would simply leave the Islands. Raising donations for recovery projects, something that happened relatively easily after Ivan, would likely be more difficult as well.

As a result of the financial crisis, the business climate here has also changed.. Many businesses have expressed displeasure with ever-increasing fees and the difficulties with the immigration policies, so businesses might not be so willing to ride out another long recovery, especially when so many have offices in other jurisdictions.

One thing we know will still happen is that insurance policy payouts will spur a construction boom. This will require large amounts of temporary imported labour, but if businesses and long-term white collar Caymanians and expatriates leave, a sustained economic recovery from another Ivan-like hurricane could prove much more difficult than in the boom years between 2005 and 2007.