Tropical Depression 4 formed in the
Atlantic Ocean Monday and is expected to become Tropical Storm Colin.
However, the official forecast track
of the National Hurricane Center in Miami takes the storm northeast of the
Leeward Islands, away from the Caribbean Sea and the Cayman Islands. None of the major computer models forecast
the cyclone to enter the Caribbean Sea.
Depending on the steering currents,
the storm could threaten Bermuda in about five days.
After a relatively quiet start the
2010 hurricane season – there has been one hurricane, one tropical storm and
now two tropical depressions so far – storm activity is likely to get much more
prevalent this month.
Historically, there has been a
sharp increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity in August until the
peak of the hurricane season on 10 September. Tropical cyclone activity has
historically remained high through mid-October.
August is the second busiest month
of the hurricane season in terms of activity, behind September and ahead of
October.
Hurricane forecasts have called for
a very active, or even hyperactive, season this year. Several updates on the late-May/early June forecasts
are expected this week. However, since most hurricane activity usually occurs
after 1 August, the forecasts are not expected to shift downward significantly.